News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

01 May 2026 | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO NEWS

The oil price jumped higher following a report from Axios, suggesting that an escalation in the US-Iran conflict was still being considered. US Central Command had prepared a “short and powerful” wave of strikes that would break the deadlock.

The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold as expected, but there were notably four dissenters, which is the most for an FOMC decision since 1992. Chair Powell acknowledged a “vigorous” debate about the guidance language, “moving toward a more neutral place” but that “a majority of us didn’t feel like we needed to send a signal on that right now”. Most economists predicted that this means rates are held for the rest of the year.

The Bank of England also kept its key Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% with voting coming in at 8-1. 10yr gilt yields closed above 5% for the first time since 2008, driven by inflation concerns due to oil prices but also speculation around Sir Keir Starmer.

BOJ decided to maintain its policy rate at 0.75%, in a split vote of 6-3, marking the largest division under Ueda’s leadership.

The UAE announced that it would leave OPEC on May 1, having been a member since 1967, being the third-biggest oil producer in the group and accounting for about 12% of OPEC’s output.

China’s latest Politburo meeting signalled a positive economic outlook, highlighting a strong economic start and outperformance of key indicators. The emphasis on challenges had also been toned down.

COMPANY NEWS

A Wall Street Journal report sent tremors through the market as it suggested that OpenAI had missed its internal revenue and user targets for the end of 2025, even with the company stating that its consumer and enterprise businesses are “firing on all cylinders”.

These tremors were then quashed by results from Alphabet, as shares rose 10% as revenue, search and cloud revenue, backlog and earnings all beat hopes.

Amazon shares rose on results as the cloud division grew by 28%, the fastest in 15 quarters. Although the retail division was still good, the scale of AI is impressive - $15bn AI run rate and Trainium commitments of $225bn. Like Andy Jassy’s recent CEO letter, they are very devoted to the cloud spending.

Microsoft have suffered due to the marketing thinking they are an AI loser. Shares were flat on results with cloud growth offsetting weak software sales.

KLA Corporation shares fell on weak guidance.

Meta shares fell as daily active figures across its media platforms even with financial metrics looking good. Like Andy Jassy, Mark Zuckerberg is doubling down on capital expenditures ($135bn from $125bn).

On the back of this spending, which is clearly positive for the US economy, it is worth mentioning that Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile had grown even further ($397bn).

Pharmaceutical bastions, GSK and Novartis were more or less in line with expectations and left guidance.

On the back of worries on the consumer, Visa delivered very strong results with revenue growth up 15%!

UBS followed US banks by announcing a strong beat to expected numbers and had the confidence to increase its share buy backs. All operating divisions beat, in particular the Investment Bank.

Adidas followed their recent Marathon record show but announcing a decent beat but no guidance change.

KONE has agreed to acquire TK Elevator for €29.4bn in one of Europe’s biggest-ever private equity exits whilst Brown Forman called off talks with Pernod  Ricard.

INDUSTRIAL GASES

The sector is dominated by three companies, Linde, Air Products and Air Liquide.

Linde already operates at c.30% operating margins, among the best in global industrials, and expects further incremental expansion, whereas Air Liquide is earlier in its margin journey, but has set out explicit multi‑year expansion targets: +1% in 2026, +1% in 2027, +5.6% cumulative (2022–2027). Air Liquide’s growth came in slightly under, but cashflow beat as did the margin guidance. The backlog reached a new record.

Linde delivered another high‑quality quarter: steady growth, industry‑leading margins, strong cash generation, and consistent capital returns. Exactly the kind of performance investors expect in a choppy macro world.

GLP-1 IMPACT ON SPENDING

Eli Lilly’s GLP‑1 portfolio, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound (tirzepatide), delivered another set of brilliant results driving double‑digit revenue growth and pushing obesity and diabetes treatments to become one of the company’s largest and fastest‑growing franchises.

Beyond pharmaceuticals, these drugs are beginning to influence retail spending patterns: several consumer goods analysts and retailers have noted rising chewing‑gum sales, which are interpreted as a substitute oral habit for users who experience reduced appetite but still seek sensory stimulation or relief from dry mouth, a known side effect.

At the same time, traditional impulse categories—such as confectionery, sugary snacks, and some single‑serve treats—are showing softer volume growth, particularly in the US, as appetite suppression reduces spontaneous food purchases at checkouts and convenience stores.

THE WEEK AHEAD

The focus shifts to the health of the US economy, with April’s jobs report and ISM data taking centre stage after the Fed held rates steady. Friday’s non‑farm payrolls will be key in shaping expectations for any rate cuts.

In the US, results from companies such as Walt Disney, Uber, Airbnb and Palantir will offer insight into consumer demand, travel and corporate spending trends following the tech focus.

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

1926: Ford Motor Company formally introduced the five‑day, forty‑hour workweek for industrial workers. This move reshaped productivity economics, consumer behaviour, and work–life balance.

2004: ten countries joined the European Union in its largest expansion, significantly altering trade flows, labour mobility and investment dynamics across Europe.