News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

04 April 2025 | Charlie Todd | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO

• Exceptionalism to Isolationism. He called it “Liberation Day” but President Trump’s plans to introduce aggressive reciprocal tariffs on many of America’s trading partners wiped $5.2tn from the US stock market as measures were larger than expected, with percentages against Japan and Vietnam severe. Oil fell – not helped by an OPEC supply announcement
• China announced some retaliatory 34% tariffs. In Japan, 10-year bond yields fell very sharply. Japanese Trade Minister Yoji Moto said his ministry had already set up a tariff task force. He also commented that Japan needed to assess what was best for Japan in a careful but bold manner – it is worth noting that Japan is the largest foreign holder of US debt at c.$1.06tn
• The EU could include targeting US tech and services with it considering options such as a digital services tax on US businesses, retaliatory tariffs and deploying its anti-coercion instrument to defend its interests. EU leaders are urging for a united and decisive response to Trump’s measures
• French far right leader Marine Le Pen was convicted of diverting €4.4m in EU funds for political activities and banned from running for 5 years, starting immediately
• In a bright spot, the U.S. added 228,000 jobs in March, far more than the 140,000 expected. Unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.2% from 4.1%. March ISM Manufacturing index declined to 49.0 vs 49.5 expected. The report noted that demand retreated, and layoffs continued due to uncertainty

COMPANY NEWS

• There were several large moves downwards in share prices in reaction to President Trump’s tariff plans. Banks (who start reporting season off on 11^th April) and retailers with manufacturing in the Far East, such as Nike, Adidas, On Running all fell sharply. Apple’s international web of fabrication also worked against it with its shares falling by 16%. Sectors such as liquor, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals were given a reprieve, but this may only be short term
• In reaction to the 25% auto tariffs, Jaguar Land Rover, announced it would pause shipments to the US. In one quarter last year it exported 38,000 cars, the same amount sold in the UK and EU combined
• Pets at Home fell 8.5%, having fallen as much as 14%, after issuing a trading statement that was in line whilst stating it expects to finish the year in a net cash position. However, the company stated that current market conditions would continue into the new financial year and guided 15% below expectations
• Shares in Tesla reversed earlier losses to finish 5% higher after reporting first quarter delivery details that declined 13% following reports that Elon Musk was set to be leaving DOGE when “his work is complete”
• New Intel CEO, Lip-Bu Tan announced further details on his strategy for the business, spinning off non-core assets to focus on core operations, improve its balance sheet and replace lost talent, with a focus on innovation
• Johnson & Johnson fell 7.6% after its latest plan to settle thousands of talc related lawsuits through bankruptcy had been blocked. The company will have to fight around sixty thousand claims in the courts and potentially meaning it will cost more than the $9bn the company has put aside. It was suggested 70% of plaintiffs were likely to settle which could cost $11bn
• Shares in Travis Perkins closed down 10.2% after reporting full year results where operating profit was better than expected and company guidance to be in line with the prior year but management commented that uncertainty remained and they had experienced a mixed start to the year
• Primary Health Properties upped its bid to £1.5bn in cash and shares for Assura but it was still less than the £1.6bn from KKR and Stonepeak Partners

EASY TIGER

There was an article in the FT suggesting that Whitbread owned hotel chain, Premier Inn, has become the latest target of easyGroup’s efforts to enforce trademarks. Infamous founder, Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, is challenging Premier Inn’s ‘Rest easy’ branding

easyGroup has several brands in the stable, including listed airline group easyJet, and others such as easyBus, easyStorage, easyHotel, easyBet and easyMoney

Lawyers of easyGroup state that Premier Inn’s use of the term in signage and marketing risked confusing consumers and eroding the value of its brands. Premier Inn’s legal team accused easyGroup of trying to monopolise an “ordinary English word”

VACCINE ISSUES

Vaccines related stocks were already under pressure from the appointment of Robert F Kennedy Jr as Secretary of Health, however this was compounded after the resignation of Peter Marks as the head of FDA vaccines unit

Reports noted that Marks told peers that he was asked on the spot to decide whether to step down or be fired. The news raised red flags in the industry who are worried about the politicisation of the scientific process and whether other experienced officials may be pushed out

In reaction, shares in Moderna fell nearly 9% to a multi-year low of $28.35 having reached $449.38 in September 2021 after being at the forefront of the Covid-19 jabs

ROCKETS

Congratulations to Willie Mullins in training the first three home in the Grand National at Aintree Racecourse – he also had fifth and seventh! Even more special was that the winner, a horse called Nick Rockett, was ridden by his son (and assistant trainer at Closutton), Patrick.

Sticking to rockets, there have been a few deals in the US mortgage market recently. Profitability in the sector has been muted as mortgage rates have been stubbornly high for some time and therefore Americans are not moving – mortgage rates are fixed for life rather than 2 to 5 years commonly found in the UK.

Rocket Mortgage, previously known as Quicken Loans, has agreed to buy mortgage firm Mr. Cooper in a $9.4bn deal and Brookfield has bought a majority stake in Angel Oak, a mortgage lender and investor that manages over $18bn.

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

1999: The minimum wage was introduced in the UK at £3.60 an hour (£3.00 if you were aged 18-20). The Low Pay Commission was also set up to enforce the rules 

2000: US District Judge Thomas Penfold Jackson ruled that Microsoft has violated antitrust law and deemed it had a monopoly in web browsing sending the shares 14.5% lower