News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

03 April 2026 | Charlie Todd | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO

We hope you had an excellent Easter break.

Back and forth of fighting talk. Trump stated that an agreement to end the fighting could come soon and claimed that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15 demands the US had issued while Iran then stated that US demands were “excessive and illogical”. The US threatened to destroy Iranian energy infrastructure including water facilities if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened soon. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant later commented that the US was “going to retake control” of the Strait ensuring safe navigation “through US escorts or a multinational escort.” Iran’s news reported that they were willing to end the war but only if there are guarantees “to prevent the recurrence of aggression”.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that longer term inflation expectations seem to be in check, but that the Fed was monitoring them carefully to asset the impact of the war. He commented that “there’s sort of downside risk to the labour market, which suggests keep rates low, but there’s upside risk to inflation, which suggests maybe don’t keep rates low”. It was noted they were monitoring private credit “super carefully” too.

The US economy continues to be more resolute than expected. Non-farm payrolls came in at 176,000 in March, against the 60,000 expected, even as February’s figures were downgraded.

The Australian Government announced that they would be halving the tax levy on petrol prices from 53c to 26.3c at a cost of A$2.6bn, as the Prime Minister, Mr Anthony Albanese insisted that they needed to keep the economy functioning.

COMPANY NEWS

Sweet music. Universal Music Group moved higher by 4.1% after announcing its first ever share buyback since it listed in 2021 and that it planned to repurchase €500m of shares stating that the programme would be used towards its incentive compensation scheme and to reduce share capital of the business as management commented that “we currently see a meaningful dislocation in UMG’s market valuation.”

Aluminium rose after drone strikes by Iran on Persian Gulf aluminium facilities with the region’s top supplier
Emirates Global Aluminium stating that it had sustained “significant damage” with Aluminium Bahrain noting
that it was still assessing the damage. The Middle East accounts for around 9% of global aluminium production and therefore shares in Norsk Hydro and Rio Tinto rose 9.5% and 3.5% higher respectively in reaction.

Berkeley Group has tended to be the best run UK housebuilder for some time, but the shares fell dramatically as announced they will halt land acquisitions under current market conditions, except through joint ventures. “Recent years have seen an unprecedented increase in cost and regulation, at a time of increasing interest rates and faltering consumer confidence, amid prolonged geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty.”

SSE announced a trading update with full year earnings guidance narrowed at the top end of its previously guided range. They also mentioned that their net debt was expected to be just over £10bn which was better than the market feared. Management stated it is monitoring developments in the Middle East.

Vermeer Partners was bought by W1M Wealth and Investment Management, with the deal closing on the morning of 1st April, following regulatory approval by the FCA. Guy McGlashan, CEO, commented: "It is with great pleasure that we officially welcome Vermeer to the W1M team. Vermeer brings with them a track record in client service innovation and outstanding investment expertise. Above all, they share a deeply held conviction that it is our role as wealth and investment managers to provide dependable solutions to our clients’ financial challenges and objectives. We look forward to ensuring a smooth transition for Vermeer’s clients, maintaining exceptional service, and introducing them to W1M’s unique offering.”

JUST DON’T DO IT

Several analysts we follow were expecting a tick shaped recovery but the shares in Nike ‘swooshed’ in the wrong direction following results. Although the backward-looking print was in line with expectations, shares fell 9% as guidance was worse than feared. The next quarter insight was slightly below numbers, but the biggest surprise came from management providing guidance for the rest of 2026, with sales expected to be down low single digit percentages with earnings to mark time over the next three quarters, or nearly 25% below the Street. CEO Elliott Hill, who came back to fix the business is a long way off getting more ticks in the box.

MIXING BOWL

We have highlighted food inflation and the prospects and companies joining forces in the food and drink sector. US food wholesaler Sysco crumbled 15.28% after declaring that it had agreed to buy Jetro Restaurant Depot for $21.6bn in cash and 91.5m shares, (total value of $29.1bn). Sysco supplies food to restaurants, hospitals and schools across the US while Jetro operates in a similar manner to Costco with Sysco commenting that the deal would give it access to the higher margin and growing cash and carry line. Unilever on the other hand are trying to divest its food business (Hellmann’s and Knorr), and look to have mashed a
deal with US sauce and spice business McCormick, consisting of US$15.7bn in cash, with the rest in McCormick equity, which is expected to leave Unilever controlling 65% of the resulting company, so would hardly be a clean split. This excludes the foods business in India which accounts for 10% of foods, which interestingly includes Horlicks. Quite!

THE WEEK AHEAD

The market is starting to refocus on crude oil inventories, and we get that print on Wednesday. We also get the minutes from the latest Fed meeting. On Friday we receive the latest US CPI print. Reporting season is back and it kicks off with Exxon (Tuesday) and Shell (Wednesday) letting us know how they will be benefitting from the higher oil and gas prices. We also have Constellation Brands (Thursday) and Unite (UK Student Property, Friday). 

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

1504: English guilds and corporations go under state control

1778: New Orleans businessman Oliver Pollock creates the "$" symbol