News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

13 March 2026 | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO NEWS

The conflict in the Middle East continued and oil remained at an elevated level. Market concerns also drifted to sulphur supply which is used for copper and nickel extraction as 25% of the global supply also comes from the region. The US announced that it would be waiving the Jones Act which required American ships to be used to transport goods between US ports. In his first comments since becoming Iran’s Supreme Leader, the new Ayatollah stated that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed.

US CPI was 0.3% month-on-month with year-on-year CPI of 2.4% both in line with estimates and unchanged on the prior month. Data showed that inflation was kept in check by lower prices for used cars and motor vehicle insurance whilst prices increased for gasoline and groceries. Elsewhere US consumer sentiment dipped about 2%, reaching its lowest reading of the year.

UK GDP ‘growth’ came in at zero in January, far weaker than market expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month pickup. The weakness was driven by services, the main part of the UK economy. Some economists argued that some blame can be laid at the feet of the current government due to their fiscal regime as policies seem to be reducing demand, and the data is beginning to show it. AI worries are also impacting hiring in the services sector, which in turn is leading to higher unemployment and softer demand. If the oil shock continued for a period of time, it could also then lead the economy into recession. 

COMPANY NEWS

Inditex, the owner of Zara, reported full year results with a 3.2% sales increase to €39.9bn (7% at constant currency). Growth was driven by demand and a 4.8% increase in online sales. Analysts noted that consensus would remain largely unchanged whilst noting that trading at the start of the year was solid.

Balfour Beatty surged after reporting excellent full-year results, combined with a share buyback adding further fuel to the rally. The order book stood at £22.7bn at year end, up 23% and including more UK power generation and defence contracts, along with US building work.

Mixed reports in the European defence sector as Leonardo rose 6% after providing long term guidance (15% growth over the next five years) at its capital markets day. They also commented that they were aiming for the company to be a global security player, whereas Rheinmetall finished 8% lower after reporting good results, but the margin and sales guidance missed.

Halma said it has made "further strong progress", leaving it on course to deliver its 23rd consecutive year of record profit. It said it expects mid-teens percentage organic revenue growth for the current year, compared to an increase of 9% in the financial year to March 2025.

Oracle rose 10% after reporting strong results above estimates. Growth in Cloud Infrastructure was 81% vs 82.2%. The company said it expects full-year revenue to grow to $90bn whilst capex expected to be $50bn.

Full year numbers from events business Informa saw revenues up by almost 14% and operating profits rising by closer to 15% with management heralding it an outstanding year of success. The proposed dividend rose by 10% and they extended the share buyback.

TSMC announced that revenue across the first two months of the year increased 30%, below the 33% projected. The stronger Taiwanese dollar is acting as a headwind as well as high memory prices.

Hims & Hers finished the week sharply higher after it reached an agreement with Novo Nordisk to sell its weight loss drugs on their platform. It was also announced that Novo would pull the patent lawsuit but reserved the right to refile the copycat lawsuit.

PRIVATE CREDIT ISSUES

Bar the obvious headlines from the Middle East, the market is continuing to focus and question private credit exposures. On a Citigroup call, CEO Jane Fraser noted that recent news was not a systemic issue while noting that it would be more problematic if the froth around AI firm valuations, technological disruption risks and private credit lending all converged.

Elsewhere Morgan Stanley fell 4.1% after it followed similar actions by other firms in capping redemptions. Its North Haven Private Income Fund returned less than half of investors tender requests, after capping redemptions at 5% of shares. The news followed a similar move by Cliffwater, which limited redemptions to 7% of shares in the first quarter for its flagship $33bn private credit vehicle.

DEBT SALES (FORCE)

A new bond issue from Salesforce, the $180bn enterprise software company with a focus on customer relationship management (CRM) tools, highlighted the extent to which AI has threatened software-as-a-service (Saas) business models. Salesforce shares have almost halved from their highs as so called “SaaS-pocalypse” has torn through the sector. Salesforce announced a bond raise which totalled $36bn, or about 1.4 times the deal’s size.

That tally is a far cry from the $126bn of demand for Amazon’s $37bn recent bond offering. It’s also well below orders equal to about 4.1 times the notes offered on average, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The longest-dated bonds (30-year) issued were rated at A+ by S&P and were sold at a yield equivalent to 1.7% above US Treasuries and almost 100bps higher than the so-called spread on other single-A-rated bonds. Part of the market’s concern is that the new debt will be used to fund a share buyback in the company's already depressed stock. 

THE WEEK AHEAD

Interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England and ECB on Thursday. 

Standard Life (previously known as Phoenix Group) report on Monday with Prudential on Tuesday. Tencent and Micron Technology report on Wednesday and Alibaba and FedEx on Thursday and JD Wetherspoon on Friday. 

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

1844: The 1844 Bank Charter Act, passed by Robert Peel’s government, fundamentally reorganised British banking by restricting note issuance and strengthening the gold standard. It split the Bank of England into Issue and Banking departments, ensuring paper money was strictly backed by gold/bullion.

2011: on the first trading day after the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami, the Nikkei fell 6.2%.