News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

06 March 2026 | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO NEWS

The conflict in the Middle East gathered pace as Israel and the US continued to bomb Iran and retaliatory strikes brought more of the countries that host US bases into the war. In reaction, oil and gas prices continued to rise – oil is up around 30% since the bombing started, while gas prices have risen even more as Qatar – one of the world’s largest LNG producers – halted production at a major energy site. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.

US economic data was mixed as ISM Services index for February came in at 56.1 which was better than the 53.5 expected, which was led by mining, information and real estate. The ADP private payrolls report showed job growth of 63k vs 50k expected with the prior month revised lower. The main negative was the non-farm payroll figure as the US economy shed 92,000 jobs in February against the 55,000 gain that was expected.

The Japanese Shunto wage negotiations resulted in an average increase of 5.94%, towards the top end, according to a report from RENGO, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation. 

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave her Spring Statement to parliament which did not include any major announcements, but provided updated forecasts from the OBR, which did not factor in any of the potential impact from ongoing developments in the Middle East – which means they will be out of date quite soon if fighting continues. Growth in 2026 is now projected to be 1.1%, down from the prior forecast of 1.4%.

COMPANY NEWS

Broadcom (one of the Batmmaan 8) moved higher following earnings that came in ahead. Guidance was excellent as the company expects $100bn of AI sales. 

US optical networking company Ciena, which was up 50% this year going in their numbers, fell 13%, after reporting results that were not good enough.

Marvell Technology rose 14.7% after it delivered a typical incremental beat for the quarter, albeit with a slightly larger raise due to their Data Centre division.

Costco is expensive on many metrics but continues to execute brilliantly as February core comps were +6.0%, and Membership and renewal rates were stable.

Brown Forman (Jack Daniels) conference call provided a negative read for Spirits as they suggested the market “still not great” and they have already hit pricing ”pretty hard” so it was a relief to see Davide Campari up 10% after reporting results ahead of consensus estimates.

CrowdStrike rose 4.2% after commenting that the “AI revolution is creating a massive growth opportunity for CrowdStrike.”

Universal Music Group announced good set of results ahead of expectations which was driven by Recorded Music, and positive signalled trading momentum.

Some numbers suggest the UK is struggling. Vistry delivered an in-line set of numbers, but there were negative surprises sending shares down 18% as CEO, Greg Fitzgerald, announced his retirement and recent delays to transactions led net debt higher. Recruitment specialists Pagegroup net fees declined by 7% and Greggs announced in line figures but sales growth slowing to 1.6% was disappointing.

Berkshire Hathaway management announced they had restarted buying back their shares on valuation grounds.

Asia ecommerce company Sea Ltd fell 16.5% on mixed numbers as sales were higher but earnings missed expectations and margin guidance was low.

Adidas fell 3.6% as sales were slightly muted and guidance missed expectations due to tariffs and FX.

PRIVATE CREDIT BLACK MARKS

We have highlighted the negative rumblings in the private credit market such as the First Brands and Tricolor defaults. More recently it has been the bankruptcy of UK lender Market Financial Solutions where several banks have underlying exposure.  Alternative financials and private equity firms continue to be impacted by ongoing worries.

Blackstone finished 3.8% lower, following reports that it had received record redemptions (7.9%) for its Private Credit Fund, among the largest funds in the sector. MD, Jon Gray called concerns in the space a “tonne of noise”.

Elsewhere Blackrock announced that it was wiping out the value of a $25m loan to Amazon aggregator Infinite Commercial, to zero that it valued at 100 cents on the dollar only three months ago.

STABLE CONSUMER STAPLES?

On the eve of The Cheltenham Festival, we are not talking about the horse house but how several consumer staples have uncharacteristically sold off dramatically on results.

Shares in Reckitt Benckiser fell 5.8% after reporting full year results that were in line, with earnings slightly above expected and growth of 5.4% coming in ahead of the 4.7% expected. Pleasingly North America grew 2.5% and Asia was strong, which should be a good read across for Unilever, however European sales fell 4.5% and they continue to expect a challenging trading environment in Europe.

The main faller in the sector was Nivea owner, Beiersdorf which fell a staggering 20.1% even with sales and earnings in line with consensus. Organic growth of 2.4% was below forecasts and guidance was flat with margins to be below the prior year. Analysts commented that weaker than expected performance from the Nivea brand could indicate the brand has been “over premiumised.”

THE WEEK AHEAD

From a macro economic standpoint, we start the week with inflation data from the Chinese and then separate country inflation figures from Europe and then on Friday we get the latest GDP figures from the UK.

On Monday we see results from HG Capital Trust which have been hit hard by AI worries. Later in the week we see prints from Spirax Group, Persimmon, Balfour Beatty, Legal & General, Halma and Sunbelt Rentals (previously known as Ashtead). In America, on Tuesday we see numbers from NIO, Kohl’s and Oracle with Wheaton Precious Metals and Adobe reporting on Thursday.

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

1957: Ghana becomes the first Sub-Saharan country to gain Independence from the British Empire

1876: Alexander Graham Bell, a Scottish-born Canadian-American inventor, was awarded U.S. Patent No. 174,465 on March 7, for an “improvement in telegraphy” designed to transmit vocal or other sounds electrically.