News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

13 February 2026 | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO NEWS

Scottish Labour Party leader Anas Sarwar called for Starmer to step down, noting that “the distraction needs to end, and the leadership in Downing Street has to change”.

The UK GDP data was worse than expected as it went back to trending around zero. GDP quarterly growth was 0.1% vs 0.2% expected with annual growth of 1.0% below the 1.2% forecast. The only sector that was better than expected was the Services sector which was boosted by government spending.

Contrasting data in the US as non-farm payrolls increased 130k vs 65k expected with unemployment rate falling slightly to 4.3%, below estimates as the participation rate rose to 62.5%, above forecasts.

However, US retail sales growth was of 0.0% was a lot worse than expected (0.4%) with ex-auto and gas sales growth also below estimates. Data showed that most categories decreased in December, but economists noted that severe weather which could make it difficult to gauge demand. Following the data, markets are now pricing in 0.18% of cuts by the Fed by the June meeting when Kevin Warch is due to take over as Fed Chairman, and 0.54% of cuts (ie two) for the year.

COMPANY NEWS

One of the last bastions of the City of London, Schroders, rose 28.6% after announcing that it had agreed to be acquired by Nuveen for £9.9bn creating an asset manager with $2.5trn of assets.

Natwest were also buying up assets as they purchased the £69bn of client assets from Evelyn Partners for £2.7bn. Their results were also a decent beat driven by both growth and margin, but guidance was low.

Unilever delivered growth and margin as expected with guidance at the low end of previous guidance, but the shares rose in reaction. Previous subsidiary Magnum Ice Cream Company also reported but the shares fell 12%.

Relx has been on the back foot due to AI worries about their walled garden of data – particularly LexisNexis. Results quashed a lot of the fears, and the results call reinforced messaging, whilst they boosted the buyback.

Hermes is probably the best luxury company in the world and shares rose 2.6% on results with income beating expectations on in line revenues. Leather Goods, Watches and Textiles offset Perfume weakness.

Phillips drilled 11.8% higher on results ahead of expectations as the renaissance gains traction.

Shares in BP spluttered 6.1% lower even with results that were better than expected but surprisingly they announced the suspension of the share buyback with excess cash to be used for the strengthening of the balance sheet while continuing to cost cuts.

Shopify has performed well but fell 6.49% after reporting fourth quarter results that were not up to the high bar. Operating income grew 36%, as revenue increased 31%, both higher than forecast. The guidance was ok and a new £2bn buyback was announced.

Automation specialists, Cognex, announced quarterly results of 10% revenue growth with an improvement in margins. They also guided to sales growth of 13% with higher margins leading to 50% earnings growth.

Shimano failed to find the right gear as it fell 5.6% after releasing that beat expectations for the quarter but fell short of consensus estimates for the full year highlighted the weakness of the cycling market. 

DOES THE HOUSE ALWAYS WIN?

We had mentioned the pressure on the gambling stocks ever since the political prediction companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket decided to pivot into sports late last year.

DraftKings reported their quarterly results and they were not good. Revenue and adjusted earnings both missed expectations materially even with more promotions to attract customers recently. Encouragingly they did note no apparent impact from prediction markets. The guidance was more cautious than the recently reiterated guidance from both Flutter (Paddy Power Betfair) and Entain.

In reaction the shares of DraftKings fell 13.5%, taking them down 39.0% early in 2026. Flutter reacted in sympathy, falling 10.9%, taking them down 42.0%. Perhaps the house does not always win.

SOFTWAR-INESS

Wealth management and tax planning stocks were the latest to get hit on threats from new AI releases, this time from financial software provider Altruist which helps advisors personalise strategies for clients and create account statements and other documents. Shares in Charles Schwab fell 7.42% and Raymond James and Stifel falling 8.42% and 3.83% respectively. In the UK, St James’s Place and AJ Bell fell 13.4% and 8% respectively.

The next area in the crosshairs was the real estate sector as stocks such as JLL and Cushman & Wakefield fell 7.6% and 11.6% respectively as AI worries will lead to reduced demand for office space following the broking stocks failing.

S&P Global, the exchange business, fell 9.7% even with in line results and guidance was a little light but analysts noted that results were likely to pressure shares given ongoing concerns around threats to data businesses from AI.

French software company Dassault Systemes fell 20.8% after reporting results which missed expectations and forecast 1% growth rather than the 3.5% outlined. These results further amplified fears in the sector of the AI threat.

THE WEEK AHEAD

UK employment data on Tuesday. UK CPI data will be released on Wednesday. 

We also get the Fed minutes on Wednesday.

Cadence Design Systems, Intercontinental Hotels Group and Vulcan Materials report earnings on Tuesday. Occidental Petroleum on Wednesday. And Rio Tinto, Walmart, Alibaba, Nestle and Newmont Mining all report on Thursday.

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

2007: in China, the Shanghai Stock Exchange tumbled 9%, the largest drop in 10 years, after rumours emerged that Chinese economic authorities would raise interest rates to curb inflation. The crash earned the moniker the “Shanghai Sneeze” as it triggered major drops in worldwide stock markets.

2018: The Dow and S&P 500 capped off their worst weekly performance in two years after a stronger-than-expected jobs report sent interest rates expectations higher.