News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

12 December 2025 | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO NEWS

The US Fed cut lowered interest rates on by 0.25% to a range of 3.50-3.75%. The vote was split 9-3 with dissenters including Austin Goolsbee and Jeff Schmid who both favoured leaving rates unchanged while Stephen Mirran voted for a half point cut. They also set out numbers for 2026 with GDP growth at 2.3% against 1.7% in 2025 and inflation is expected to end 2026 at 2.4% versus 2.9% for 2025 with unemployment at 4.4%.

US job openings continued to highlight a pattern of hiring and firing in the economy as openings came in at 7.67m in October vs 7.12m expected with gains in healthcare and hospitality. 

ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus stated that interest rates did not need to be lowered further.

Germany lawmakers approved a defence spending plan of €52bn spread over 29 separate contracts including €22bn for basic military equipment and clothing. The overall amount equates to around 10% of Germany’s federal budget.

Even with the tariffs, for the first 11 months of this year, China’s exports rose to $3.4trn while its imports declined slightly to $2.3trn, equating to a trade surplus of $1trn. China’s CPI rose 0.7% in November but factory gate inflation continued to weaken, falling by 2.2%. This was the 38^th consecutive monthly contraction in PPI inflation.

Japanese GDP Q3 data showed a higher negative revision to minus 2.3% from minus 1.8%. The Bank of Japan is still considered likely to raise interest rates at next week’s meeting. 

COMPANY NEWS

Signs of weakness in the AI trade as shares in Oracle and Broadcom both fell by over 10% on results. Earnings from Oracle comfortably beat expectations but sales slightly missed with management comments failing to suppress investors’ concerns around the financing needed. Broadcom were harshly treated as they beat expectations across the board with revenues at $18bn for the quarter, driven by a 74% increase in AI Semiconductor revenue. Management said they expected more than $73bn of AI sales over 18 months. Nvidia look like they will be blocked by the US Government from selling their H200 chips to China.

However, one of the winners of the AI trade has been power company, GE Vernova. It rose 15% in one day as the company stated that revenue was now trending to the high end of $36-$37bn with net margins forecast to be 8-9% while also increasing free cash flow forecasts to $3.5-$4bn which may lead to increased buybacks.

Adobe beat expectations as revenue was a record $6.19bn, up 10% and above consensus estimates. Guidance was also better as they mentioned they would focus on customer group subscription growth in 2026.

Schneider Electric held its capital markets day and stated that it expected organic revenue growth to be 7-10% through to 2030 while it was targeting cumulative net margin expansion of 2.5% from 2026-2030.

L’Oreal announced that it was doubling its stake in Galderma to 20%, acquiring the stake from an investor group led by private equity firm EQT. It was noted that a 20% stake would be worth around $9.8bn.

Aegon shares fell 10% after providing guidance and announcing that it was moving its headquarters and renaming itself as Transamerica. A positive was a new €400m share buyback programme.

Shares in UK housebuilder, Berkeley Group rose after reporting first half results with profit slightly ahead of expectations even with the average selling price declining 5%. Guidance was muted.

Ashtead results were ok, and the shares marked time as guidance was left unchanged and they expected some of the 'mega' projects to come through next year.

SATISFACTION SKANK

As Norman Cook (aka Fatboy Slim) was finally allowed to release the aforementioned track in collaboration with the Rolling Stones, holders of Unilever were failing to get any satisfaction as the shares fell 2.1% on its first day of trading following the spin-off of Magnum Ice Cream.

The company successfully completed the demerger of its ice cream division, called The Magnum Ice Cream Company on the Euronext exchange, with its shares ending the day slightly higher and giving it a market capitalisation of just under €8bn, right here, right now.

Unilever then announced its weapon of choice, a share consolidation, with shareholders receiving 8 new shares for every 9 held, so the shares understandably rose.

THE TAKEOVER: PART II

The sequel is better.

Following the Netflix bid, Paramount announced its hostile all-cash tender offer to acquire the entire company (rather than parts) valuing Warner Bros. at $108.4bn. Paramount stated that it believed its offer provide shareholders with $18bn more in cash than Netflix’s offer and that the combined business would execute on $6bn of cost synergies.

Trilogy please…

In other Hollywood news, Disney announced that it had agreed to license IP, such as Mickey Mouse and Cinderella, to OpenAI and take an equity stake in the company. It has also agreed to take a $1bn stake in the business.

THE WEEK AHEAD

A quiet week in company earnings as Christmas draws near.

But Accenture and Nike report on Thursday as well as FactSet, which many believe to be under threat from AI.

In the US, we see two months’ worth of Non-Farm Payrolls released on Tuesday, following the government shutdown. And then the CPI print on Thursday.

And in the UK, we have November CPI numbers on Wednesday and the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday.

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

1941: At 7:48am local time, Pearl Harbour is attacked by Japan. The stock market was closed on the day of the attack, but the next day when the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened it fell 3.49% to 112.53.

2017: Bitcoin enjoys the start of a manic week rising from $13,000 to almost $20,000 before falling back to close to the $2,000 level by the end of the following year.