News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

05 December 2025 | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO NEWS

The US stock market wants a rate cut and therefore there were cheers when the November ISM Manufacturing index was worse than expected (48.2 vs 49.0) and down on the prior month. Prices Paid rose to 58.5, above consensus estimates while readings for New Orders and Employment declined on the prior month to 47.4 and 44.0 respectively. The report noted that uncertainty around tariffs was driving the pullback in demand.

We had French uncertainty earlier in the year, but this has shifted East. German yields moved higher following news that a key vote on pension reform in parliament was close following disagreements in the ruling coalition. Chancellor Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc and the SPD have 328 seats out of 630 in the lower house, giving them a majority of just 12.

Individual country inflation data in Europe was released last week so the overall block data was mostly in line with expectations, coming in at -0.3% month on month and 2.2% for the annual figure. Data also showed that services inflation ticked up to 3.5% y/y as ECB President Christine Lagarde commented that the ECB was in a “good position given the inflation cycle”.

The Bank of England released its latest stress tests stating that all the UK’s seven largest lenders had passed which examined resilience to an economic shock worse than the global financial crisis. The BoE also cut its estimate for how much capital the UK banking sector needed for the first time in a decade, while signalling a consultation that could free up extra lending and lead to higher payouts to shareholders.

COMPANY NEWS

It was reported that Simon Trott, CEO of Rio Tinto was set to focus on cost cutting and raising roughly $7.5bn in selling assets and turn the company into a slimmed down operation centred on iron ore and copper, with the latter commodity helping power the shares higher.

Inditex is a brilliantly run company, and the shares reacted positively after it reported 9-month results, with earnings increasing 4.8% to €5.94bn and net sales rising 2.7% to €28.17bn. Margins were up on the prior year period leading to good cash flow as the company noted that store and online sales from 1st November to 1st December were up 10.6% on the prior period’s +9%. Conversely, Hugo Boss fell 9.9% after a profit warning. Management called next year a period of realignment.

Brown Forman, the owner of Jack Daniels, announced poor results that did not do much to raise the spirits of the sector. The CEO stated that “While our results did not meet our long-term growth aspirations, we made important progress in an exceptionally challenging macroeconomic environment. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we expect continued headwinds.”

Boeing flew 10.2% higher after CFO Jay Malave stated that the company expected to be low single digit cash flow positive in 2026 following a $2bn cash outflow in 2025 while a long-term cash goal of $10bn was possible. He cited steadily improving production cadence at its factories and the reduction in inventory as reasons for optimism alongside improving profitability in its defence division and steady growth in services.

Snowflake shares fell 7.9% despite reporting results ahead of expectations and forecasting 27% revenue growth, below the 30% buyside investors had hoped for.

Bayer rose 12.1% after it was reported that the Trump administration had recommended that the US Supreme Court take up the company's appeal around Roundup lawsuits. Bayer management commented that “the support of the US government is an important step and good news for US farmers, who need regulatory clarity.”

Trustpilot shares dropped over 20%, after a report from short seller Grizzly Research, which accused the consumer review platform of "mafia-style extortion campaigns against non-paying businesses".

METAVERSE SAUSAGE ROLL

Two companies based in two very different sectors were listening to their shareholders this week which we applaud.

Meta Platforms rose 3.5% after it was reported that the company was set to cut Metaverse spending, something which has been questioned in some quarters. Executives are considering a spending reduction of as much as 30% next year in the project which has already lost $60bn. The cuts are part of Zuckerberg’s request to look for 10% cuts.

Closer to home Greggs rose 6.5% yesterday following a report from The Sunday Times suggesting that Lauro Asset Management’s David Mercurio was pushing the company to cut costs, seeing the business as a possible target for private equity. The report noted that had attacked Greggs “timid” management and that it should cut costs by £20m annually.

HOLLYWOOD NEWS

‘Lights, Camera, Action!’ It was announced that Netflix has won the bidding war for Warner Bros studio and streaming business, subject to regulatory approval. The transaction values Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) at $27.75 per share, implying an enterprise value of approximately $82.7bn. The transaction is expected to close after WBD separates Discovery Global into a new public company in Q3 2026.

Following some media reports that this seemed likely, Paramount wrote a letter to WBD, accusing the company of failing to conduct a fair auction and not acting in the interests of shareholders. It stated that WBD CEO David Zaslav was favouring Netflix’s bid and that WBD “appears to have abandoned the semblance and reality of a fair transaction process, thereby abdicating its duties to stockholders.” ‘Cut!’

THE WEEK AHEAD

In the US, the Federal Reserve meets mid-week, and markets expect a 25bps rate cut on Wednesday. We will also see the first Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report since September 30. October data was delayed by the recent government shutdown.

China CPI release on Wednesday. 

The UK will publish its monthly/quarterly GDP update on Friday. 

Germany, France and Spain announce monthly CPI data on Friday. 

Autozone and Ferguson report on Tuesday; Oracle, Adobe and Synopsis on Wednesday; and Broadcom and CostCo on Thursday. In the UK, Ashtead Group reports on Tuesday. 

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

2007: the National Bureau of Economic Research formally confirmed the US had entered recession in December 2007. The S&P 500 fell around 8% in the following week and pre-empted the worst phase of the Global Financial Crisis almost a year later. 

2009: A surprise announcement that Dubai World might default caused a global risk-off move and was an early echo of the sovereign-debt concerns that would later dominate Europe.