News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

03 October 2025 | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO NEWS

Shut Down. With the US Government shut down and President Trump stating there will be irreversible layoffs, the economic data release was also delayed. We will have to wait for the Non-Farm Payrolls but hope the Fed still gets access to it!

The ruling Japanese LDP Party leadership election took place with economic security minister Sanae Takaichi winning and therefore becoming the party’s and country’s first female leader.

Japanese expectations of higher interest rates were strengthened by a modestly more optimistic tone from the Tankan survey. Business optimism improved for a second consecutive quarter amongst larger manufacturers including shipbuilding and the heavy manufacturing sectors.

European inflation data was in line with expectations with monthly prices nudging up by 0.1% and a yearly number of 2.2%.

COMPANY NEWS

Gold continues to hit all-time highs but the two largest miners of the precious metal, Barrick Mining and Newmont, both announced CEO departures. Newmont swapping Tom Palmer for Natascha Viljoen and Barrick introducing Mark Hill instead of Mark Bristow.

Many market commentators were expecting Occidental Petroleum to be taken over by Berkshire Hathaway (who already own a large part of the business). However, what they were not expecting was for it to agree to sell its OxyChem division for $9.7bn to the same company. Occidental stated that it would immediately pay down $6.5bn of debt, with the remainder to be used to repurchase shares.

Tesco closed up on the week after reporting 1.5% profit growth with revenues rising 3.6% over the first half of their year. The company also increased guidance.

Greggs, the Geordie bakery business, followed the success of its football team, by rising 6.4% on results that were a lot better than the analysts were suggesting.

Nike shares ticked higher as the recovery under new management looks to be gaining traction as revenue and earnings came in above expectations, however, they did highlight weakness in China and tariff impacts.

On the eve of the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp, one of the biggest races in the European flat race calendar, shares in bookmarker Flutter Entertainment finished 10% lower due to the potential impact from new prediction platforms being offered by firms such as Robinhood and Kalshi.

South Korean stocks SK Hynix and Samsung rose sharply as both firms had agreed partnerships with OpenAI to provide chips and equipment for its Stargate project.

Fair Isaac, the credit scorer (FICO score), was up 18% as it upset other data providers. It announced that it was launching a new direct license programme potentially eliminating the reliance on the three nationwide credit bureaus, Equifax, TransUnion and Experian.

Electronic Arts, the gaming company, was taken private in a $55bn leveraged buyout (LBO) deal.

DIGITAL DRAGONS

A Chinese lady, who also goes by the name Yadi Zhang, has been convicted by a UK court of leading a massive scam in China between 2014 and 2017 where she cheated more than 128,000 people and went on to store the illegally obtained proceeds in bitcoin.

The Metropolitan Police are now in possession of what is believed to be one of the world's largest ever cryptocurrency seizures, worth more than £5.5bn.

Although the UK authorities can now keep it as it is proceeds of crime, the Treasury was at pains to insist that it is taken out of forecasts.

AI’s LOOP ECONOMY

Another week, another huge AI infrastructure spend. CoreWeave said it had signed a $14bn agreement with Meta to supply computing power, the latest multi-billion-dollar deal as businesses ramp up infrastructure to meet the demand for artificial intelligence applications. Shares of CoreWeave surged 15% following the news on Tuesday.

The same week legendary tech investor, James Anderson, formerly of Baillie Gifford now with Lingotto, the new investment house backed by the Agnelli family, warned of a “disconcerting” rise in AI valuations.

“I have to say the words ‘vendor financing’ do not carry nice reflection to someone of my age “, he said, referring to the dotcom-era practice of telecoms equipment makers borrowing heavily to finance customers’’ fibre buildouts.

THE WEEK AHEAD

• Minutes from September’s Fed meeting is released plus several committee members make speeches.
• Japanese Household Spending and Saving Figures.
• Halifax UK House Price index.
• Earnings from PepsiCo, Constellation Brands, Shell and spice company McCormick & Company.

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

1990: the official reunification of East and West Germany. In the short run, markets were choppy. Investors welcomed the symbolism and long-term potential, but feared inflation, higher taxes, and interest rate hikes needed to pay for reconstruction.

2013: similar to today, the US government shuts down after Congress failed to agree a budget. It lasted 16 days and markets were surprisingly sanguine, with the S&P 500 actually finishing up on the month.