News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

08 August 2025 | William Buckhurst | Charlie Todd

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO

The Bank of England cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.00%; but, unusually, it required two rounds of voting as one member of the committee voted for a cut of 0.5% before changing to 0.25%. Following the announcement, Andrew Bailey (Governor) mentioned that any future cuts would be more gradual and that the economy was still reacting to the October Budget.

PMI UK Construction Data was not good as it saw the most rapid decline in industry activity since May 2020. The headline PMI dropped to 44.3 in July, down from 48.8 in June.

In the similar manner, US economic data was worse than expected. The July ISM Services index was 50.1 vs 51.5 expected and down on the prior month. New Orders and Employment of 50.3 and 46.4 respectively were both down on the prior period.

There are hopes that a meeting in Alaska between President Putin of Russia and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy brokered by President Trump will lead to peace.

The Japanese bond and stock market responded positively to comments from Tokyo’s trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa that the US would not ‘stack’ an additional 15% levy on goods.

COMPANY NEWS

Diageo bounced back after reporting full year results that were slightly better than gloomy expectations. Management mentioned that sales would be unchanged next year (perhaps giving themselves an easy hurdle to beat).

Zimmer had good results and said it expects 2025 revenue growth between 6.7% and 7.7%, from its prior 5.7% to 8.2% forecast as it also cut its tariff cost expectations to $40m from $70m.

Siemens had decent results that were slightly above consensus estimates. By division the Smart Infrastructure and Mobility units were both better than expected, offsetting some slight cuts in Digital.

BP followed an announcement of a large oil and gas find off Brazil with their second quarter results which showed a decline in sales and profits due to the underlying commodities, but the figures were better than expected. The unpivot back to a pure carbon business is underway with several divestments announced and headcount cuts ongoing. US peer, Occidental Petroleum reported earnings per share that beat the market expectations as revenue declined year over year because of the fall in the oil and gas price.

With the unsettled nature of world geopolitics, defence companies have performed well. One standout has been the German company, Rheinmetall. Its shares fell sharply even after announcing profits rising 18%. However, sales came in lower that elevated expectations and guidance was unchanged. This led other sector companies such as BAE Systems lower.

Becton Dickinson, the medical device company, rose 8.9% after reporting better than expected results and upgrading their full year guidance.

Disney had good results as earnings and revenue was slightly better than expectations but 127.8m Disney+ subscribers were slightly lower than forecast. Guidance was upgraded and it was announced that its ESPN division had bought NFL Network assets such as WWE Premium in exchange for a 10% stake in ESPN.

Uber sales increased by 18% to $12.65bn, slightly above estimates as management showed confidence by announcing an additional $20bn share buyback.

SWEET MUSIC

With Oasis on their tour, it was pleasing to see their publisher (SONY) have results, which Some Might Say were very good.

It reported results that beat on top and bottom lines, driven primarily by gaming which was up 10%. Music was also strong with an 7% increase. Management raised guidance due to cutting the impact from tariffs Little By Little but also announced that the finance division will Slide Away in September as part of The Masterplan to become a pure entertainment company.

On Wonder Wall (Street) Warner Music announced quarterly figures with revenue increasing 9% (6% ahead of consensus) and adjusted EBITDA 10% ahead.  There was reacceleration from the prior quarter (+1%) as consumers continue to Roll With It.

WEIGHT LOSSES

Pharmaceutical companies linked to obesity drugs are shredding market capitalisation.

After Novo Nordisk surprised the market last week with a depressing trading update, they formalised their results this week sending their shares down even further. That was until Eli Lilly reported…

Their main competitor – it is currently a duopoly – joined the obesity retreat, losing 14% of the value of the company after announcing their quarterly print. Actual results were very good, as earnings beat expectations by 14% as Mounjaro (weight loss and Type 2 Diabetes) and Zepbound (weight loss) both grew strongly. Management also upgraded guidance. However, the negativity was around the trial data for the company’s experimental oral GLP-1 drug, Orforglipron which showed 11.2% average weight loss, below the 12-15% estimate and below the Novo equivalent drug. This sent the latter’s shares up strongly.

There are also some competitors that are trying to enter the obesity market. US pharmaceutical company, Amgen, said this week it expects to have data later this year from two key mid-stage studies of its experimental weight-loss drug MariTide. One is testing the drug in obese or overweight adults with or without type 2 diabetes, while the second is looking at MariTide as a treatment for type 2 diabetes. Its results from other drugs were good, such as sales of cholesterol-lowering medication Repatha rising 31%.

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

1914: In the early stages of the World War I, the 1914 Currency and Bank Notes Act came into effect in the UK. This legislation suspended the gold standard, allowing the Bank of England to expand the money supply significantly. Plus ça Change!

2011: a mini “Black Monday” as global equities plummet amid the European debt crisis and S&P downgrading US government debt from AAA to AA+ - again, Plus ça Change!