News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

01 August 2025 | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO

• Job creation in the US slowed sharply last month, as employers added just 73,000 roles (consensus was at 110,000), according to the latest monthly report from the Labor Department. The report also significantly revised down the data on hiring from May and June by a combined 258,000 jobs, suggesting the jobs market was under greater strain than initially believed. Unemployment ticked up slightly to 4.2%. Other data suggested June job openings were 7.48m vs 7.5m expected with the prior monthly revised slightly higher. The report noted that consumer concerns over the wider US economy eased following passage of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, but its implications were “relatively low on the list of themes.”
• Individual European country inflation data was mixed as both French and Italian inflation was above estimates with Spanish numbers reaccelerating. German CPI was 0.4% month on month which was in line with expectations, although the annual figure was below estimates. Following the data, the odds of another rate cut by the ECB this year was cut to below 50%.
• Switzerland didn’t have the best national holiday on Friday after President Trump imposed a 39 percent tariff on goods imported from the country, one of the highest rates of any country. Karin Keller-Sutter, the Swiss president, said that she had spoken with Mr. Trump on Thursday but that “no agreement could be reached.” Canada was also caught with other tariffs but note that most goods are already within a previous agreement.

COMPANY NEWS

• One of the largest European companies, Novo Nordisk, and one of the main drug suppliers for diabetes and obesity fell sharply after issuing an ad hoc release cutting full year guidance as it stated expected growth of 8-14%, down from the prior guide of 13-21%. The company also announced Mike Doustdar as its new CEO, moving from Head of International Operations. French pharmaceutical company, Sanofi, also disappointed as earnings were below expectations.
• AJ Gallagher reported a rise in second-quarter profit supported by strong insurance spending that led to higher commissions and fees for the company.
• UK high street names were back under pressure with both Greggs and Watches of Switzerland falling due to cost of living and Swiss tariffs respectfully. Fortunately, Lord Wolfson continues to grow Next admirably.
• UK Aerospace stocks, Melrose and Rolls-Royce both rose strongly as demand continues to be good.
• Following on from Puma’s weak print last week shares in Adidas finished 11.5% lower even with operating profit increasing 58%. However most other metrics were below consensus estimates. Management noted that sales were still expected to grow in the high single digits while noting increased tariff uncertainty.  
• Union Pacific headed higher after reports indicated that it could reach an agreement as soon as early next week to buy Norfolk Southern in what would be the largest ever transaction in the rail industry.
• Keyence, the Japanese automation specialists, reported solid results, but it remained frustrating for shareholders as the company seems determined to ignore any ways to improve its corporate governance and capital returns policy, failing to increase its dividend and failing to split its shares to make them more investable for retail investors.
• Philips started another renaissance after reporting strong quarterly results that were better than forecast.
• Unilever’s ice cream sales (Magnum, Ben & Jerry’s and Cornetto) grew above expectations as it presses ahead with a spin-off of the €15bn division. In other sectors the company continues to trade well.

BEER FEAR

We have highlighted the continued weakness in share prices in companies related to alcohol consumption. Although beer demand tends to fall 2% on a yearly basis there were two prints that suggested things are even worse.

AB InBev reported second quarter results that were below forecasts as revenue growth was 3% vs 3.7% expected and volumes declined 1.9%, below the 0.1% forecast growth. The company left full year guidance unchanged, but the shares still fell 12%. Heineken fell 9% even with profit above and revenue in line with estimates but margins in Europe and the Americas were both lower than forecast. Both mentioned the impact of a weaker US Dollar.

TECH WEEK

A busy week for the US large cap names with Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon all reporting.

Meta Platforms was the pick of the bunch as Mark Zuckerburg’s continued capital expenditure looks to be bearing fruit. Earnings per share were $7.14 v $5.92 expected and guidance of revenue between $47.5bn to $50.5bn was better than the bulls were expecting.

Similarly, Microsoft shares drifted higher after reporting earnings that exceeded expectations. Earnings per share were $3.65 v $3.37 expected with revenue ahead of forecasts. Management forecast further double-digit revenue growth and operating income for the full year and   growth of 37% in its cloud division. They also commented that the company is in its ‘middle’ innings rather than the previous comments of saying ‘early’ innings.

Apple has been usurped as the largest listed company by both Nvidia and Microsoft but were back on the front foot as they posted their biggest revenue growth (10%) since December 2021 helped by iPhone sales rising 13%. Like Meta and Microsoft, CEO Tim Cook admitted that the company would need to significantly increase its spend on AI and did not rule out the possibility of acquisitions.

Amazon is the largest cloud provider and its division, AWS, continued to perform well with annualised sales now $123bn and still growing at over 17% and CEO Andy Jassy noted that despite the huge sales analysts noted that other competitors are growing faster and gaining market share. The shares drifted lower as results were overshadowed by a forecast that highlighted the continued uncertainty caused by tariffs. Amazon has seen very limited disruption to its retail business so far from tariff related disruption and has clearly benefited from buying a lot of products before tariffs took hold – the future is less certain.

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

2002: “Turnaround Tuesday”. Following much publicised corporate scandals at the likes of Enron, Tyco, and WorldCom, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill released statements reaffirming faith in the financial system and public markets. The Sarbanes-Oxley Act was passed on July 25^th .

2008: Early warning signs of what is to come as Merrill Lynch announces a $5.7bn write down of mortgage assets, not long after posting a $4.9bn second quarter loss.