News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

18 July 2025 | Charlie Todd | William Buckhurst

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO

US inflation data of 0.3% in June was in line with expectations. Yearly CPI of 2.7% was slightly above consensus estimates. Data showed services prices rising slightly whilst goods rose even more as they are exposed to tariffs. Following the data release, President Trump called on the Fed to cut rates by 3%!

UK June CPI was also 0.3% but this was higher than the 0.1% expected. Yearly CPI of 3.6% was also above consensus estimates.  Retailers blamed the increases in taxes and the minimum wage. Markets are pricing in 0.5% of further rate cuts. Other data showed unemployment increasing slightly to 4.7% as employers blamed the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget.

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is in a tricky position and announced various budget proposals to try to repair the country's financial position. One proposal to boost finances was to remove Easter Monday and VE Day Bank Holidays from the calendar which we would expect to be given short shrift.

The Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was put under increased pressure as polls suggested his ruling coalition party would lose its majority in the country’s upper house. His party had already lost the lower house last year.

COMPANY NEWS

• Netflix shares drifted back slightly even though its results beat expectations across every metric. Revenue rose 15% and they then upped future guidance. Chill!
•  GSK’s blood cancer drug, Blenrip failed to get backing of a US panel sending the shares lower.
•  There were management movements at both Diageo and Newmont, as CEO Debra Crew stepped down from Diageo by mutual consent whereas Newmont’s CFO, Karyn Ovelmen, resigned unexpectedly.
•  Senior Engineering, the aerospace engineering company, announced the sale of their structures division for £200m to Sullivan Street Partners, using the proceeds to pay down debt and buy back stock. In the same sector, GE Aerospace, had a great print.
• Ashtead Technology issued a profit warning after reiterating their guidance in May. The softer trading reflected geopolitical uncertainty, US market disruption, and a shift toward higher-quality rental revenue, but margins did improve. In the similar sector, Schlumberger, the oil field services company beat expectations marginally.
• Shares in Nvidia and AMD rose after it was reported that the Trump administration was set to end the ban on the export of certain chips to China.
• There were good results from ASML and reasonable order numbers but slightly cautious comments around 2026 due to the macro sent the shares over 10% lower.
• Rio Tinto announced good production numbers. 
• Barratt Redrow disappointed the market, sending the shares (and the rest of the UK housebuilding sector) lower, as it stated there would be muted growth due to planning reforms taking time to implement.
• US industrial bellwether, Fastenal, were slightly better than expected but suggested sales has been delayed from last year.  Life sciences company Waters announced that it was to merge with the biosciences & diagnostic solutions unit of Becton Dickinson.
• The electrification sector was shocked into life as ABB announced excellent results with revenue up 8% and orders above estimates. The US was particularly good.

RAILROAD RUMOURS

Union Pacific (valued at $135bn) and Norfolk Southern ($62bn) are in talks to merge, combining the largest and the smallest of the six largest North American railroad freight companies, enabling the resulting company to go coast to coast.

It is easy to see why it would be blocked on competition grounds however the sector has been in consolidation mode, as two years ago Canadian Pacific acquired Kansas City Southern for $31bn enabling the North South transit.

That merger combined the two smallest major railroads in North America and left only six major freight railroads. But it was the first major rail merger approved in two decades.

FINANCIALS WEEK

• US banking results have been very good, with continued acceleration in banking profits.
• JP Morgan is the highest quality bank and announced excellent results with earnings above estimates.  The company increased guidance and management – who have more gravitas than others – commented that investment banking started slow but gained momentum while they were still struggling to see signs of consumer weakness. This was reiterated by American Express who suggested their clients spending was healthy.
• Goldman net revenue rose 15%, as trading as better than expected. Management commented that the economy and markets were generally responding positively to the evolving policy environment. Citigroup is cheap on book value but is growing as results were better than expected whilst announcing a $4bn buy back.
• The only disappointment was Wells Fargo, as interest income declined, and it lowered its full year outlook stating this year would match last year.

VERMEER DAY OUT

Our annual company outing took place in Sussex on Thursday with four teams. A seven-a-side cricket competition combined with ‘support’ from the boundary.

Many congratulations to the winning captain, Chris Hogarth, and his team – Alice Best, Imogen Stainton, James Mann, Tom Harris, Alastair McRobert and Tim Gregory. Special mentions also go to Alice Best (best bowler), Edward Buxton (best batter), and Tim Gregory for playing every game due to various late injuries! Howzat!

THE WEEK IN HISTORY

1843: Steamship SS Great Britain is launched, designed by Isambard Kingdom Brunel, it is the first ocean-going craft with an iron hull or screw propeller and the largest vessel afloat in the world

1969: Man walked on the moon for the first time – Neil Armstrong followed soon after by Buzz Aldrin from mission called Apollo 11.