News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

04 July 2025 | William Buckhurst | Charlie Todd

That Was The Week That Was

MACRO

• President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill was passed before the 4^th July public holiday. The Senate voted 51-50 to pass the $3.3trn bill, which combines $4.5trn in tax and $1.2trn in spending cuts.
• Sterling and Gilts sold off amid uncertainty about Chancellor Reeves’ position as the Prime Minster failed to give full backing.
• Chair Jerome Powell fought back against criticism stating that the Federal Reserve would have cut rates further if were not for Trump’s tariffs.
• The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam ahead of the 9^th July deadline, placing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US and a 40% levy on goods deemed to have been shipped through the country. Data shows that Vietnam was the 6^th largest supplier of US imports last years, sending goods worth around $137bn with US exports to Vietnam worth around $15bn.
• Mixed economic data in America with the Non-Farm Payrolls beating expectations coming in at 147,000 v 110,000.  June ISM Manufacturing index at 49.0 vs 48.8 expected was still below 50 while readings for New Orders and Employment of 46.4 and 45.0 respectively were both below forecasts. Job openings data for May showed JOLTS of 7.8m vs 7.3m expected.
• European inflation data was in line with consensus estimates as June CPI was 0.3% for the month and 2% for the year. The inflation data benefited from the slowdown in inflation in Germany combined with lower energy costs and a stronger Euro. The outlook will be determined by the US trade negotiations.

COMPANY NEWS

• Oracle has been one of the biggest winners of the AI boom and rose 4% after suggesting a “strong start” to fiscal 2026 whilst also announcing a single cloud contract worth $30bn in annual revenue, starting in 2028 but further details were limited.
• The combination of poor UK construction data and uncertainly about the Chancellor’s position pushed housebuilders lower due to worries about the Government not being able to help the sub-sector.
• All 22 US banks subjected to stress tests remained above their minimum capital levels in a hypothetical recession. This year’s scenario was based on peak unemployment of 10%, a 50% decline in equity prices and a 30% decline in commercial real estate prices.
• US Health Maintenance Organisation Centene fell 40.4% after issuing a profit warning and withdrawing guidance, citing a review of health insurance marketplace data which showed overall market growth in 22 states that was lower than expected.
• Spectris finished 3.7% higher as it was announced that KKR had offered the equivalent of £40 per share, including £39.72 in cash and 28p per share in dividends - 6.3% higher than Advent’s previously agreed bid.
• Santander announced that it had agreed to purchase TSB from Sabadell for £2.65bn in cash, making it the third largest lender in the UK. It will add £35bn in customer deposits to its £181bn. It was noted that the deal is expected to lead to at least £400m in cost savings with Sabadell subsequently stating that it would pay an extraordinary dividend of €2.6bn.
• Another one bites the dust – although this is the biggest. It was reported by The Times that AstraZeneca (the largest company listed in the UK by market capitalisation) has discussed wanting to break free and moving its primary listing to the US due to frustration with the UK’s regulatory regimes along with concerns over the country’s life sciences. Reports also noted that it was considering moving the company’s domicile. The London market continues to be under pressure.
• Sky News reported that Octopus Energy (22.7% owned by listed Australian company Origin Energy) is close to hiring bankers to oversee a £10bn separation of their technology arm, Kraken.

HIGH STREET STRUGGLES

Greggs had a large profit warning, sending the shares 15% lower. Their first half sales increased 6.9% to £1.03bn as previously reported improved sales performance had continued but the hot weather in June limited demand for hot items and instead was more favourable for cold drinks.

Another name is obviously having a tough time too as WH Smith had to renegotiate terms from agreeing a £76m sale of the high street business to Hobbycraft owner Modella in May saying demand had softened. This 'resulted in a reduction in the ongoing cash flow of the business', and therefore WH Smith will now receive £10m at completion, and up to £20m deferred whereby the retailer and Modella equally share in the cash flow to August 2026. It will also receive £10m of additional proceeds based on 'timing and realisation of certain tax assets'.

SPORTING TRUSTS

Our thanks to the excellent daily newsletter from the Investment Companies team at Jefferies who reminded us that Sir Don Bradman chaired the Australian listed investment company Argo Investments in the 1980s. It made us think of other sporting legends to turn their skills towards investments.

Alan Hansen, the former Liverpool and Scotland footballer, was involved with an investment trust called the Alan Hansen Football & Leisure Fund in the late 1990s.

Espen Baardsen, the former Spurs goalkeeper, ran money at Hugh Hendry’s Eclectica Asset Management.

In 2017, star Russian tennis player Maria Sharapova was appointed to a UBS Wealth Management advisory board created to improve the service it offers female clients.

In 2004, Stefan Edberg founded Stockholm-based Case Asset Management.

Nico Rosberg, Formula One World Drivers' Championship in 2016 with Mercedes founded Rosberg Ventures, a venture fund-of-funds based in Monaco.

THE WEEK IN HISTORY 

1884: Dow Jones and Co. begins publishing average closing prices, in what would be the world’s first equity index. Now known as the Dow Jones Transportation Average, the original 11 stocks in the index were nine railroads and two delivery companies including Union Pacific and D&L Western

1923: A new business by the name of the “Graham Corporation” is founded by young value investor Benjamin Graham. No longer an employee to another firm, Graham would now be free to invest as he chooses and the illustrious career of “The Dean of Wall Street” had begun