News & Insight • Weekly Newsletters

20 June 2025 | William Buckhurst | Charlie Todd

That Was The Week Was

MACRO

The US launched an invasion on Iran, dropping a number of bombs on nuclear facilities early on Sunday morning.

The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold for its fourth meeting in a row in a unanimous decision. Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor seen as a potential candidate to replace Jerome Powell as the next chair, called for a rate cut next month and played down the risks that tariffs would push up inflation.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%. The vote to hold was 6-3 as Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden joined external MPC members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor in voting for a rate cut. The minutes from the meeting stated that the committee “expected a significant slowing over the rest of the year” in wage growth while noting that there were “some greater signs of disinflationary pressures from the labour market.” Markets are currently pricing in around 20bps of cuts at the next meeting in August and 49bps for the rest of the year. UK inflation numbers were in line with expectations at 3.4%.

The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged, as expected. The main element of the meeting was the confirmation that from April 2026 the central bank will cut back the size of its bond purchases from ¥400bn to ¥200bn per quarter.

Elsewhere, and closer to home, both Switzerland and Norway cut rates.

COMPANY NEWS

• Ashtead highlighted the slowdown in US housing transactions as full year revenue fell 1% (albeit mainly currency related) and it scaled back rental revenue projections for next year to 0-4%. It also sanctioned a second consecutive reduction in capital expenditure on new equipment, suggesting cautious future demand.
• Eli Lilly acquires Crispr gene-editing start-up Verve Therapeutics for a consideration thought to be around $1.3bn. Verve’s main gene therapy targets PCSK9, a gene linked to cholesterol levels and cardiovascular health, and will enter phase-two trials this year.
• A small trial has shown that Novo Nordisk’s new injectable obesity drug (amycretin) has the potential to deliver higher weight loss (24.3%) than both current market leaders – made by Novo (15) and Lilly (23.5).
• Accenture reported a second consecutive drop in quarterly new bookings sending the shares down 7%, however revenue and guidance was better than expected. Management also unveiled some restructuring to bolster its growing AI consulting services to mitigate cutbacks in U.S. government spending and economic uncertainty pressures.
• UK recruitment firm Hays closed the week down around 10% after issuing an unscheduled trading update. The company stated that it expects current challenging market conditions to persist with permanent recruitment activity levels especially weak.
• Berkeley Group, a UK housebuilder, beat expectations with only a 5% fall in pre-tax profits to £530m compared to analysts’ forecasts of £526.3m. New house sales rose to 4,047 from 3,521 in 2024 but guidance was poor, sending the shares 8% lower.
• Whitbread, the hotel group which owns Premier Inn, had disappointing results sending the shares slightly lower. The main areas of weakness were the sites in London where revenues per available room (RevPAR) dropped 5.5%. Outside London, RevPAR declined 1.7% but the growth in Germany continues to be good.
• In the same week as Royal Ascot, we thought it was brave that betting company, Entain, upped guidance due to its US joint venture BetMGM upgrading profits, and shares followed positively, moving up 15%.

ALL THAT GLITTERS IS NOT GOLD

With the gold price having been particularly strong during this period of uncertainty, it overtook the Euro in overall Central Bank holdings.

Meanwhile, President Trump, along with his children, launched a new gold smart phone. The Trump Organisation claims that the $499 handset will be made entirely in the US – which many industry analysts have said would be “virtually impossible” at that price. The phone will also come alongside a mobile service with a monthly fee of $47.45, a reference to Trump being the 45^th and 47^th President of the United States.

NORTH SEA GLEE

Companies with North Sea exposure, such as Shell, Equinor, Ithaca, Jersey Oil & Gas and Kistos were drifting higher as the market took the announcements on emissions for new projects positively.

US President Donald Trump has called on the UK to speed up rather than slow down projects in the North Sea whereas Ed Milliband, Secretary of State for Energy, has been particularly negative to issuing new licences – even though the Prime Minister and Chancellor seem to be in favour, due to the benefits for the economy as a whole.

In January a Scottish court had ruled that approval of two large North Sea projects - Shell's Jackdaw (East of Aberdeen) and Rosebank involving Equinor and Ithaca Energy (West of Shetland Islands) - were unlawful and must be retaken.

The new guidance needs to take into consideration the emissions of using or burning the fuels extracted. These so-called downstream, or Scope 3, emissions were not previously part of the consenting process. This, they added “will ensure the full effects of fossil fuel extraction on the environment are recognised in consenting decisions.”

The oil and gas sector on the stock market seemed to like the news, with some publications suggesting this gave the government enough wriggle room to allow licenses even with their renewables stance.